© 2023 by Skyline

Martin Falbisoner creator QS:P170,Q30147473, US Capitol west side, crop by webmaster, CC BY-SA 3.0

We canvassed and raised over $100,000 to help launch the Blue Wave in Virginia in 2017, over $1 Million in 2018 to help win the US House, and over $300,000 for the successful VA Legislature capture in 2019.

31st Street Swing Left 2020 2 Pillar Bottom-up Strategy

Recognizing 2020 will be an Ultra-turnout, highly polarized election 

  • Voter registration through support to effective on-the-ground organizations and selective direct boots-on-the-ground efforts by our members.

  • Selective state legislature races with potential to flip a legislature, where such local efforts can contribute significantly to help statewide US Senate and Presidency efforts in those states through a “reverse coattails” effect.

 

State priorities are North Carolina and Pennsylvania and others TBD very selectively, as opportunity arises.

 

Later in the election cycle we will also engage in more traditional voter outreach, especially canvassing, with an emphasis on low-turnout voters.

 

We will remain alert to opportunities that may arise for races where our support may provide significant leverage.

 

Rationale

 

The 2020 landscape is obviously very high profile, with powerful forces at work. We want situations where our support will be high leverage and strategic.  Key underlying points:

 

  • Thankfully, Dem donors are supporting strongly virtually any race that is high visibility.

  • The Presidency will be decided in battleground states, but the Dem nominee will have a huge amount of money, and any direct money from us will have negligible effect.

  • The US Senate is particularly important, with a narrow path to winning the 4 seats likely needed. The best opportunities are Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Arizona. Senate Races will also generally be well funded.

  • We are very secure in retaining a solid majority in the US House.  We have excellent prospects of flipping at least 3 seats and Dem incumbents are already very well-funded.

  • In state legislature races, relatively small amounts of money can make a lot of difference, especially when provided early on. And supporting such races can provide significant help to statewide elections through “reverse coattails” effect.

  • Voter registration, especially directed toward youth, persons of color and single women offers the most leverage and impact opportunity, especially early on, compared to traditional persuasion and turnout voter outreach in the high-profile 2020 environment.  

  • The best voter registration calls for specialized expertise, good infrastructure and lead time for organizational development.  We will systematically seek out the most effective voter registration/education organizations for support.

  • We have limited bandwidth and need to concentrate on a few key states, in part based on physical proximity and where support may be overlooked by others.

Special Elections

We monitor special elections occurring across the country throughout the year to identify strategic ones to support – both local and Federal, that are within our “sweet spot” of winnable but not shoo-ins.  Local races can have national impact if they offer advancement toward legislative control or offer other advantages. Special elections are often “under the radar,” with short lead times, little attention, and low voter turnout.  Thus, we often have an opportunity to offer critical early support where a small amount can make a deciding difference.