31st Street Swing Left 2019 Strategy
Together we canvassed and raised over $100,000 to help launch the Blue Wave in Virginia in 2017
And we raised over $1 Million in 2018 to help win the US House
Our 3 priorities, designed to have the most impact:
Turning the Virginia legislature blue
“Groundwork” in North Carolina (and perhaps other states) preparing for 2020
Selected special elections.
Using intensively-gathered best evidence, we will target mid-tier “reach” races (not too easy and not too difficult) and other opportunities for the most effective support, emphasizing early money and canvassing.
Why Election of a Democratic Majority in 2019 Matters:
The People of VA will benefit from enlightened legislation, like gun safety, environmental protection and quality healthcare.
We can combat gerrymandering and promote fair redistricting following the 2020 Census.
VA will ratify the ERA, potentially now potentially close to successful nationwide ratification.
Early donations are pivotal in such local races.
A 2019 Blue Wave in Virginia will provide inspiration and lessons nationally as it did in 2017.
Great Opportunity in both VA Chambers. Only 2 Pickups needed in each for Control.
In the House, Four Dem races came within 200 votes in 2017. Two of those districts are highly likely wins and the other two are very promising. Court-mandated redistricting puts another five or so R-held districts in play.
In the Senate, two highly vulnerable R incumbents have announced retirement. One other race appears highly likely to flip and another 2-3 appear highly promising.
Tailwinds that will help us: 1) We will again have good candidates, including some who gained considerable experience in previous elections, and 2) Virginia continues to trend bluer.
Headwinds that will hurt us: 1) We will have to defend some D incumbents. 2) There are no state-wide elections in VA to enhance turnout and 3) Republicans will not be caught napping as some were in 2017.
North Carolina Preparation for 2020
While there are no major elections scheduled for 2019, NC is a crucial state for statewide and national impact in 2020. The NC US Senate seat is crucial to winning the Senate nationwide. Furthermore, the legislature will be pivotal in US House redistricting after the 2020 Census. Currently those House districts are highly gerrymandered with 10 of 13 R incumbents, even though the statewide vote for US House candidates split fairly evenly in 2018. In 2018, Dems made major inroads in both legislature chambers and are now with striking distance in both. NC needs a fairer election environment as witnessed by the NC 9th district scandal.
Other advantages in NC are a continuing influx of new arrivals who tend to be progressive, a large proportion of people of color who are likely to turn out in a Presidential year like 2020, and a strong set of local progressive organizations, in part activated in response to heavy-handed Republican tactics.
Groundwork activities include voter registration, education and empowerment, and resistance to voter suppression. Fortunately, there are a number of effective NC organizations to support - including non-partisan tax deductible (c3) ones as well as partisan ones. We will select those who appear most cost effective.
We monitor special elections occurring across the country throughout the year to identify strategic ones to support – both local and Federal, that are within our “sweet spot” of winnable but not secure. Local races can have national impact if they offer advancement toward legislative control or offer other advantages. Special elections are often “under the radar,” with short lead times, little attention, and low voter turnout. Thus, we often have an opportunity to offer critical early support where a small amount can make a deciding difference.